Buy or Sell? What should the Cardinals do with 48 hours to go?

Perhaps a blend of the two makes the most sense!

When it comes to the Cardinals and the Trade Deadline, I liken it a bit to used car shopping: evaluating previous performance, investigating past accidents (injuries), checking the seller’s price tag, and gauging how flexible they are. The question is—what kind of vehicle are the Cardinals shopping for? A Ford F-250 with all the horsepower you could ask for? A Ferrari with speed and the ability to blow past anybody? Maybe they should take a step back, play it safe, sell off some wants, and settle for a Honda Civic. At this deadline, I think the Cardinals should buy the Toyota Prius. Yes, a hybrid. (J-dog, I need you to come through with a GIF of Mo driving a Prius with a Cardinals logo on the front.)

After a horrendous start out of the All-Star break, the Cardinals went 1–5 on a road trip that was supposed to be an opportunity to cement their status as buyers. Instead, they’ve had to pull out their Cardinal Red shovel and dig out of the hole they’ve created. The NL Central is pretty much out of reach at this point, but the NL Wild Card remains a viable playoff route. I continue to believe that a playoff berth is the ideal path for this club heading into the Chaim Bloom era. Competing with the offensively inept Padres and Giants, and the unproven Cincinnati Reds, the Cardinals can hybrid buy/sell at this year’s deadline and still remain in the race for the final spot.

Who to sell?

The Cardinals have several veteran relievers that the industry tends to overpay for this time of year. The old adage “there’s no such thing as too much pitching” always prevails, and the Cardinals have a commodity to sell. Teams with firmer footing in the race will see LHP Steven Matz, RHP Phil Maton, and RHP Ryan Helsley as attractive solidifying pieces.

Closer RHP Ryan Helsley: In 36 appearances this season, Helsley has a 3.00 ERA. His xERA and FIP are both 3.51, he’s striking out batters 26.1% of the time, and his K-BB% stands at a solid 17.2%. He’s generated a +1.50 WPA. While no longer at peak value—his strikeout rate has declined for the third straight year—he still consistently hits 100 mph and possesses a wipeout slider that makes batters look silly. Helsley should command a decent return even if it’s not top-tier. Teams value proven late-game performance, and Helsley has provided that over the past four seasons.

Set-up man Phil Maton: 40 appearances for “Pass the Maton!”—Mozeliak’s best bullpen pickup since Pat Neshek in 2015. It only took a decade, and we had to survive Brett Cecil, Andrew Miller, and Greg Holland in the interim, but I digress. Maton’s been stellar: 2.35 ERA, 2.55 xERA, 2.49 FIP, and a .203 BAA. He’s increased his strikeout rate from 22.6% to 30.4%, with a +0.72 WPA. Signed for a bargain $2 million, any acquiring team would owe him roughly a league-minimum pro-rated salary. If the Cardinals pay down the rest of his modest contract, they could demand a big-time return. Just imagine what a contender would pay for one of the top setup men in baseball with zero financial strings attached. Cha-ching! $$$

Swingman LHP Steven Matz: Matz has made 30 appearances and two starts this season, posting a 3.23 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a career-best 2.90 FIP. His 3.23 ERA would be his best since 2015 when he made 6 starts and produced a 2.27 ERA and his 2.90 FIP would be a career best! While not a strikeout artist, his 21.2% K rate and 4.1% BB rate add up to a strong 17.1% K-BB%. He has a -0.61 WPA, largely due to a brutal June stretch (10 ER in 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA). Since June 25, however, he’s bounced back with 9.1 IP and just two earned runs (1.93 ERA). His strand rate is an impressive 84.9%, though a 4.16 FIP suggests some good fortune. Still, his versatility and left-handedness make him a valuable asset. He’d be a perfect fit for the Dodgers, able to flex between starting and relieving to suit their ever-fragile rotation.

What should they buy in this hybrid scenerio?

A Bat to balance against LHP:

For the love of God, please get an offensive piece who can hit LHP. Ivan Herrera cannot do it all for the Cardinals, they need more. Here is breakdown of the Cardinals hitters against LHP this season minimum 50 PA’s:

Three players, THREE, are above league average against LHP this season. This is an obvious issue that needs to be addressed. The Cardinals can address it with players who are either short-term or long-term pieces this season to round out the offensive attack and sure up a clear weakness they need to make it a priority.

Some names that could fill this need at this year’s deadline with their (wRC+ against LHP) would include BOS Romy Gonzalez (185), Rob Refsnyder (150), CWS Austin Slater (154), my personal favorite MIA Dane Meyers (140), WSN Alex Call (137), and MIN Harrison Bader (124.) Most of these guys are platoon options and have defensive versatility or they can play in the outfield.

Effective future starting pitching:

Liam Doyle and the rest of the 2025 draft class was a really good and NECESSARY first step towards addressing this persisting issue. I could not fathom what I found when doing this research. I went all the way back to 2021 and looked at the starting pitching from then until now… and I am shocked by how negligent this front office has been in addressing the starting rotation. Again, this is almost 5 YEARS of sample size.

Out of all 30 teams in baseball the Cardinals ranked 29th in k%, 29th in K-BB%, 26th in BAA, 22nd in WHIP, 21st in ERA, 16th in FIP, 27th in SIERA, 18th in fWAR, 15th in HH%, 23rd in WPA, oh and they were 5th in IP… C’MON for 5 years you’ve been statistically a bottom 10 starting rotation. When trying figure out where it’s all gone wrong this is the FIRST group to point the finger at.

I don’t know what order of operations Chaim Bloom has established in terms of team needs, but I hope he would look at this as a red alarm bell (that’s probably run out of batteries twice it’s been going off so long) and should be the obvious top priority. They say pitching AND defense wins championships. Perhaps John Mozeliak thought an overperforming defense could prop up a lackluster group of pitching. His bet has failed magnificently. Step up and pay the freight for the arms that will return you to prominence and everything else will fall into line.

-Thanks for reading

(All stats and graphs are via FanGraphs)