One month into the season and there are even more questions than before
So far this year, this is a team finding its identity after several seasons of upheaval and change. The Cardinals in 2022 watched the retirement of the old guard. In 2023, the team crashed and burned. 2024 brought a lackluster second place finish tied with the Chicago Cubs. The team struggled to find a hitting coach, the defense and fundamentals seemed out of phase, and questions surrounded Oliver Marmol and the abrupt firing of the insubordinate Mike Shildt, the second of two Mikes.
So far in 2025, with April nearing its completion, the Cardinals have been allowing 4.66 runs per game, while scoring 4.52 runs on average each game. Their run differential isn’t terrible, at -4. For the rest of the season, fangraphs projects that the Cardinals will reduce the runs scored against them, going forward. They do after all have much improved defense now, maybe the best defense in MLB. Who knows? It’s only almost May.
The caveat is, fangraphs doesn’t think the offense can keep scoring 4.52 runs per game. Currently, we are projected to finish with 77 wins. That’s not very good, and only good enough to finish above the Pirates, barely. Fourth place! I suppose that is entirely possible.
Why 4th place? Because the pitching just isn’t that good, and the offense isn’t actually elite. In fact it’s been hit and miss, cratering in enough games to bring the team below .500. And they are five games below .500 because the pitching has been failing to prevent runs even with good defense supporting them.
Also, the team is currently in 4th place. So there’s that. We don’t have a lot to go on telling us otherwise. What could turn this thing around?
- what if Nolan Arenado is indeed untradeable and puts up over 5 fWAR in 2025? that’s the kind of player that is a difference maker if he has some support surrounding him
- what if Masyn Winn is a top tier defensive shortstop, while hitting for league average? along with Arenado, this is a run preventing wall of defense on the left side of the diamond
- what if Brendan Donovan gets MVP votes and puts up close to 8 fWAR? That is what he is pacing for. So, along with strong defense we have an elite hitter on the roster!
- what if Lars Nootbaar maintains an on-base percentage around .400 all year from the leadoff spot? that should be an exciting offense! Noot will likely hit over 20 home runs too
- what if Ivan Herrera picks up where he left off and ignites the offense when he returns? having him in the lineup every day will only help bolster the offense
- what if Willson Contreras’ start on offense has been a mirage and he turns it around and makes up for April the rest of the season?
- what if Victor Scott II maintains league average offense while playing superb center field defense and steals 50 bases? he could do that! maybe
You get the idea! Those are some very real points that could make the team finish above 4th place, if things break our way. Sure I could make outlandish claims about Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker figuring things out, but those were already 7 players that could be big difference makers and propel the season forward.
The main problem remains winning on the road, and that has to change its tune at some point. It’s a long season and there will be many plots and storylines and side quests.
And let’s not forget Matthew Liberatore could lead the staff along with Sonny Gray and maybe the rotation won’t be too bad. Libby has been one of the best starters in MLB so far this year, 5 starts in. & Maybe the bullpen won’t be nearly this bad the rest of the season. There is plenty of baseball left to be played.
The Cardinals play bright and early today, starting before the noon hour, making up for a weather delayed Tuesday night. Maybe the Cardinals will still notch their first series win on the road and win 3 in a row in another city. Maybe not. Or they could still split the series.
The fickle finger of fate has brought us the last day of April. I ask the Cardinals to go out of the month on a winning note. Which means hopefully they’ll win with Matz on the mound, because unless they break the bats out, I don’t think they will win miles away from home with Mikolas at “Great American Ballpark”. What a cheesy name. If Ohio is peak America, I am not too impressed, to be imperfectly honest.
And now, a poem from the digital ghost of Bukowski for those of you who are actually going to sit around and drink beer all day for both these games today. I will be working all day and night so I envy you, heartily!
watching these cardinals is like watching a drunk try to find his keys in the gutter
they’ve been stumbling around for years now
first the old boys left then everything went to hell in ‘23
‘24 wasn’t much better tied with those damn cubs
here we are end of april ‘25 and they’re still pissing away games
4.66 runs given up 4.52 scored
numbers numbers numbers
the stats guys say we’ll get better
sure
and my landlord will stop asking for rent
they say we’ve got the best defense in baseball
doesn’t mean shit when you can’t win
77 wins they predict
fourth place
like finishing fourth in a drinking contest
nobody remembers fourth place
got these hotshot kids though…
and aging arenado with his fancy glove work
…winn the new golden boy at short
donovan playing like he’s got something to prove
nootbaar getting on base like he’s got a map to first
herrera contreras scott
all these names
just names until they prove something
the road games are killing us
like a bad hangover that won’t quit
they’re out there right now in cincinnati
that sorry excuse for a ballpark
“great american” my ass
nothing great about losing
liberatore’s got some fire in his gut
might save this rotation
might not
baseball’s funny that way
like life
doesn’t care what you want or need
just keeps throwing curveballs
matz is pitching today
god help us
mikolas too
like choosing between lukewarm beer and a root beer float
neither one’s gonna make you feel good
but here i am
watching anyway
like a fool at the racetrack
betting on the three-legged horse
because sometimes
just sometimes
