And who the Cardinals lost, including Connor Thomas
My, how times have changed. Earlier in the week, I realized that I had the post following Rule 5 day. And I thought sweet something to write about. And then they didn’t select anybody. There is still stuff to talk about though. But the strange thing is that I found this unexpected. The Cardinals usually don’t select a Rule 5 pick. Ryan Fernandez was the first since Matt Bowman in 2015.
I saw some people frustrated the Cardinals didn’t select anybody, but looking at the successful picks of the past 20 years, I find it very hard to raise a stink. The ceiling appears to be a middle reliever or bench player. I mean there is a reason they are available. The Cardinals got decent production out of Hector Luna for about a year and a half. They had one decent season from Brian Barton. Two effective years out of Bowman. Fernandez is to be determined, but he is absolutely not the bar you should set when complaining the Cardinals didn’t get anyone. He is a rarity, not the expectation.
Maybe Fernandez has a late inning future in him, he strikes me as someone best suited in middle relief who may pitch late innings for weaker bullpens. (I mean regularly – in a long season, you will have middle relievers needed for late innings in some games). It also must be said that the Cardinals picked high last year, not as high this past season. I suspect it is not a coincidence that they couldn’t find anyone. Looking at the history, it’s not just that they are middle relievers and bench players, it’s how ridiculously short their tenures were that sticks out to me. The ones who worked out. I see no reason to lose any sleep over this. Also, someone back me up on this, but last year had an unusually strong crop of relief options available. Again, not the baseline to use.
Who the Cardinals lost
Connor Thomas, LHP – 27 (Age they are next season)
AAA: 56 G (3 GS), 90.1 IP, 20.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 53.5 GB%, .331 BABIP, 2.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/4.13 xFIP
Thomas was just in the wrong system here. He is behind JoJo Romero, John King, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Packy Naughton (though he is hurt), plus there’s a comparable guy in Alex Cornwell and the Cardinals do still have Drew Rom. They are not hurting for lefties.
Oh and the Brewers aren’t either. There’s a decent chance he’s returned to the Cardinals or maybe traded elsewhere. Just because the Brewers selected him doesn’t mean he’s automatically going to be a mainstay in their bullpen. Also, something I literally just noticed for the first time is that Thomas has insane BABIP against in his MiLB career: .331, .379, .356, .323, .396. They’ve all been high offense environments, I just can’t believe I hadn’t noticed this. You have to go to 27 innings in Low A to get a normal BABIP from Thomas.
Henry Gomez, RHP – 23
Low A: 39 G, 62.1 IP, 15.9 K%, 9.4 BB%, 54.5 GB%, .306 BABIP, 3.03 ERA/4.09 FIP/4.59 xFIP
Old for his level, doesn’t strike anyone out, unimpressive advanced stats in a pitcher’s league, hit 10 guys and threw 7 wild pitches. I think the Athletics just had to fill out a roster and this was the easiest way. The Cardinals did give him at least 12 save opportunities, and as much as 16, because he did blow 4 saves, but he could have blown those “saves” in the 7th inning for all we know.
Trent Baker, RHP – 26
AA: 22 G (14 GS), 81 IP, 22.7 K%, 12 BB%, 36.1 GB%, .295 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.57 xFIP
Drafted in the 9th round back in 2021, Baker has always been old for his level as he rose through the system. He pitched decently, though never quite good enough to get a midseason promotion. Those are decent stats for the run environment in AA, but it’s tough to protect a 26-year-old who walks a lot, doesn’t get groundballs, and gets about an average amount of Ks. Doing at least one of them well seems required.
Aaron McKeithan, C – 25
AA: 55 G, 191 PAs, .264/.356/.325, 8.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .061 ISO, .311 BABIP, 100 wRC+
I want to congratulate McKeithan on compiling the absolute least exciting way to land at a 100 wRC+. Having a .061 ISO in Springfield seems hard to do. I actually like this pick from the Pirates’ perspective, it’s just tough being in the same system as Jimmy Crooks, Leonardo Bernal, and Sammy Hernandez when you are not considered an actual prospect.
Brandon Komar, RHP – 26
AA: 19 G (8 GS), 79.1 IP, 19.6 K%, 5.8 BB%, 53.8 GB%, .339 BABIP, 2.50 ERA/2.79 FIP/3.36 xFIP
AAA: 10 G, 22.1 IP, 18.8 K%, 8.9 BB%, 43.5 GB%, .357 BABIP, 5.24 ERA/4.38 FIP/4.66 xFIP
Komar was found money already. Komar was drafted by the Padres back in the 13th round of the 2019 draft. After spending four seasons in their system, the Cardinals selected him the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft after the 2022 season. So the Cardinals got two years to look at him, and it just took him too long to figure out AA. Komar has one more year and has to be either added to the 40 man, or he becomes a free agent.
Lizandro Espinoza, SS – 22
Low A: 102 G, 354 PAs, .201/.302/.314, 10.5 BB%, 27.4 K%, .112 ISO, .271 BABIP, 83 wRC+
You may be wondering why a 21-year-old who had an 83 wRC+ in Low A who has a ton of potential defensively (60 grade potential by Fangraphs) was left unprotected. The answer is: he doesn’t have enough time. Espinoza was signed in the middle of the 2019 season, so he has spent six years in the organization. You are eligible for free agency if you spend seven years in a minor league system without getting added to a 40 man roster. So he has quite literally one year to prove himself good enough to get added to a 40 man.
He got a 19 game sample at Low A back in 2022, and then spent the last two seasons in Low A as well, and his 83 wRC+ is his best mark there by far. I don’t see how you can go from needing two+ years in Low A and still not really have a good enough line to get promoted to High A to… let’s put him on the 40 man roster within a year. So as I said, it’s because he doesn’t have enough time. You can always give him a minor league extension, I imagine staying at the same level for over two years may want you to try somewhere else though.
Augusto Calderon, RHP – 24
Low A: 33 G, 61 IP, 26 K%, 9.5 BB%, 42.1 GB%, .277 BABIP, 4.87 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.01 xFIP
It’s not hard to see why one wouldn’t protect a 23-year-old reliever with mediocre stats in Low A. These are reasonably promising stats, but doing this at 23 is not what you’re looking for.
Additions
Oddanier Mosqueda, LHP – 26
AAA: 55 G, 67.2 IP, 29.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, 48.8 GB%, .271 BABIP, 4.39 ERA/4.50 FIP/4.11 xFIP
Am I crazy or does this guy look more interesting than Connor Thomas? Statistically anyway. Copy/paste has only been mentioned by Fangraphs twice. The first time back in 2019, when they said “Eric really likes how Mosqueda’s stuff works (the fastball has big life) but he doesn’t repeat his delivery.” Then four years later, “Mosqueda is a cross-bodied lefty who throws strikes with 40-grade stuff.” The latter would seem to be more relevant except it’s a bizarre description given the stats he has. He has posted double digit walk rates in 6 of his 8 minor league seasons. He has also struck out at least 29% of batters in 6 of his 8 seasons.
Maybe I just interpret “throws strikes with poor stuff” differently than that writer, because if I just hear that, my first thought is that they don’t strike many out and don’t really walk batters. Which is the exact opposite of what his stats show. Anyway, I wonder if copy/paste is drafted if Connor Thomas isn’t selected.
Angel Gonzalez, RHP – 22
High A: 33 G, 45.1 IP, 25.2 K%, 18.6 BB%, 34.8 GB%, .325 BABIP, 7.94 ERA/5.23 FIP/5.58 xFIP
I don’t have much on Gonzalez. He was certainly not selected because of his great stats. But Fangraphs tells me that Gonzalez sits 95-96 with a hard, upper-80s slider. So they evidently like his pitches. He’s also fairly young. He was very good last season in Low A (31.3 K%, 8.9 BB%), but has not been able to have any control since he got to High A. This is a “sure, why not” pick.
Jawilme Ramirez, RHP – 23
Low A: 8 G, 16 IP, 23.9 K%, 14.9 BB%, 38.9 GB%, .250 BABIP, 2.81 ERA/3.62 FIP/4.37 xFIP
High A: 21 (6 GS), 56 IP, 18 K%, 10.9 BB%, 41.2 GB%, .293 BABIP, 3.86 ERA/4.27 FIP/4.82 xFIP
It’s not as confusing when you look at the timeline, but you don’t often see a minor leaguer jump around like Ramirez, who pitched in both Low A and High A both this year and last year, and also saw an inning in AAA this past season. Really, though he spent most of last year in Low A, got promoted for six starts to end last season, wasn’t very good in them so he returned to Low A as a multi-inning reliever. He got promoted quicker to High A and I guess the AAA team really needed him for a game.
There’s no writeups of him, so my best guess is that they drafted him because he’s a 23-year-old with experience at both Low A and High A who can start or relieve and nothing more than that.
Miguel Ugueto, OF – 22
High A: 63 G, 249 PAs, .242/.273/.377, 4 BB%, 20.1 K%, .134 ISO, .284 BABIP, 82 wRC+
The Cardinals’ strategy with Rule 5 machinations appears pretty similar to how they draft in first-year player draft. They like young for their level guys. Even if that guy isn’t expected to be anything, of which Ugueto certainly qualifies, they like their backup outfielders to be younger. Cause who knows. Ugueto was never hurt, he was genuinely a backup outfielder for the Red Sox and he’ll probably be the same for the Cardinals.
I think people read too much into the Cardinals having no Rule 5 people selected by other teams last year. Because a few people said it was proof of how weak the system was. Well, quite a few minor leaguers were selected this time around, but is the fact that other teams want Trent Baker or Brandon Komar proof the Cardinals have a strong system? Of course not. In all likelihood, with maybe the exception of Connor Thomas, you will not read anything about any player I wrote today about ever again.
