Another route to getting a need
On Monday, I searched for right-handed outfielders that the Cardinals might trade for (and some options that they won’t trade for). I concluded the easiest solution was just to sign a right-handed outfielder out of free agency. Might as well stay on that track and look for free agent outfielders that the Cardinals might sign.
Centerfielders
Harrison Bader
Estimated Salary: 2 years, $16 million
Old friend Harrison Bader is still elite on defense. Last season, he was +10 OAA in a little over 1,000 innings played. While he did struggle against left-handed pitchers last season (70 wRC+), for his career, he has a 109 wRC+. His splits are not quite as pronounced as they used to be. With his defense, he’s playable against right-handed pitchers now.
I’m not totally sure what kind of contract he’s looking at. I had to guess myself, he is not in Fangraphs Top 50 free agents, as most of these players won’t be. He got a 1 year, $10 million deal in 2024. He probably played well enough to get a 2-year-deal. Keep in mind though that Kevin Kiermaier, coming off a 2.8 fWAR season, only got 1 year, $10 million. He was older, but defense-first outfielders don’t really get paid. On top of that, Bader was worth 1.3 fWAR in 134 games.
There is a risk with Bader given the intentions of the Cardinals for 2025 and that is simply that it may be very tempting to play Bader every day. He’s probably not quite as good of a fielder as Michael Siani at this point of his career, but he’s a much better hitter. Much better. Even his 84 wRC+ against RHP is better than Siani against RHP.
Garrett Hampson
Estimated Salary: 1 year, $4 million
Signing Hampson means the Cardinals are going to have a black hole at CF no matter who plays, no matter what handedness the Cardinals are facing. Hampson is a very bad hitter. He’s a normal bad hitter against left-handed pitching, unplayable against RHP. He also happens to come very, very cheap.
What’s the appeal then? Well, Hampson might be a very good defender in CF. Last season, he was worth +5 OAA in just 313 innings. He has +14 OAA in 1,613 innings for his career. And as I said, he’s playable against left-handed pitchers. He has a career 85 wRC+ against them.
Kiké Hernandez
Estimated salary: 1 year, $7 million
I feel like some postseason team, possibly the Dodgers, are going to sign him for his apparent magic when it’s October. Nonetheless, he has some obvious qualities the Cardinals could use. He can play CF – he has a +16 OAA for his career in CF, though I wouldn’t expect anything too great now at his age. He hits lefties: he has a career 113 wRC+ against lefties. And he’s a short-term solution who is used to being platooned.
Aaron Hicks
Estimated Salary: Minor League with MLB option, invite to spring training
You want the Cardinals to go the really, really cheap route? I present Aaron Hicks, if he’s still wanting to play anyway. He was last seen on the Angels, hitting for a 20 wRC+ in just 18 games. He got released in May. He is also likely not a good defender in CF. He has been +0 OAA in CF in his last 1,100 innings but is -8 for his career.
But he still has a reasonably good projection, is at the stage of his career where he will just be happy to be employed by an MLB team so you don’t have to play him any more than you want. He has hit lefties better in his career than righties, despite being a switch hitter. And his projection is reasonably good, with a 90 wRC+ for Steamer.
Manuel Margot
Estimated Salary: 1 year, $5 million
If you told me Margot had to resort to a minor league deal that turned into a few million MLB deal if the team selected him for the roster. But it seems like he’s young enough and was good recently enough, and has a halfway decent projection that he can get a guaranteed MLB deal. He’s basically Aaron Hicks with way less risk. Cause Margot is coming off a -0.2 fWAR season.
In the past, Margot was a great fielder, but no longer. Margot has a career 108 wRC+ against LHP, 79 wRC+ against RHP. The difference was even more pronounced last season.
Kevin Pillar
Estimated salary: 1 year, $2 million
Pillar can unquestionably play CF, but he’s not really a good defender in CF. He has a 106 wRC+ for his career against lefties. So he provides the two main elements the Cardinals need: play CF, hit lefties.
Michael Taylor
Estimated salary: 1 year, $2 million
If the Cardinals signed Taylor, they’d certainly have a terrible offensive black hole at CF. Taylor is a very bad hitter. He has a career 79 wRC+, and at 34, he might not even be that good of a hitter at this point. He’s not even a good hitter against left-handed pitchers. He has a career 95 wRC+.
He also is very, very good on defense. Almost a direct counterpart to Michael Siani. He’s been +10 OAA in CF per 1,200 innings for his career. With a slightly below average bat – if he played to his career levels – that’d be a pretty good starter.
Corner outfield
Adam Duvall
Estimated Salary: Minor League deal with MLB option, invite to spring training
As an added bonus, Duvall can sort of fake it in CF. Maybe. While he’s positive there for his career, he was actually very bad in his most recent stretch in CF, which was 2023. His defense in LF has been great and it was a small sample in CF, but he’s also 36 next season and he was bad there at 34.
Duvall is another guy signed primarily for hitting lefties. He has a career 104 wRC+ against them. He’s a tougher sell because he’s not adding a ton of value on defense and it’s not like he crushes lefties.
Robbie Grossman
Estimated Salary: Minor League deal with MLB option, invite to spring training
I’ll make this one quick. You’re getting nothing from him defensively, so he’s entirely hear to have a stronger bat against left-handed pitchers. Despite being a switch hitter, he essentially bats like a right-handed batter. His career wRC+ against lefties is 125. Against righties, it’s just 92. I wouldn’t expect either of those two numbers to be his true talent in 2025 however.
Tommy Pham
Estimated salary: 1 year, $2 million
You know the deal here. He is signed to face left-handed pitchers. For his career, he has a 125 wRC+, and 108 against right-handed pitchers. Tommy Pham’s expected stats were much better than his overall line, with a .323 xwOBA and .297 wOBA. But he also appears to have a better xwOBA than wOBA for most of his career, so that isn’t super encouraging. But the main appeal of signing Tommy Pham is that you get Tommy Pham. The downside is that Marmol might play him too much.
There’s no point in covering Randal Grichuk, Tyler O’Neill, Anthony Santander, or Teoscar Hernandez. All will be too expensive for the Cardinals. They are not looking for a starting outfielder, they are looking for a platoon outfielder. These players will rightfully demand starting outfielder spots with starting outfielder salaries. I also ignored Mark Canha, who I like, simply because he is not a good defender and he doesn’t really have strong splits in his career. If you’re going to get a right-handed outfielder, they may as well hit lefties or provide good defense.
My favorite option personally is Manuel Margot, assuming some team out there doesn’t think he deserves 500 PAs and pays him accordingly. He should be relatively cheap, but not carry the same kind of risk that most of the cheap options do. Well, my heart wants Bader, but I’m not sure they should make a multi-year commitment to him.
This list definitely proves how much easier it is to just sign a free agent option. There are a lot of options. No great options, but workable options for cheap. We’ll see what the Cardinals decide.
