The Cardinals go outside the organization for a new hitting coach
The St. Louis Cardinals have traditionally been an organization that likes to promote from within. However, after another season of abysmal offensive production under the guidance of hitting coach Turner Ward, no stat was more stark in highlighting that than their horrendous .644 OPS with RISP (which ranked 27th in MLB) according to Baseball Reference, it has become quite clear the team could use a fresh voice guiding hitters.
Brandon Allen, who is a holdover assistant hitting coach under Turner Ward, is an internal option to take the place of Ward, however, Allen is largely unproven leading an offense. As a player Allen was known for producing high exit velos and impacting the baseball in a significant way. I’m not privy to if or how he’s able to translate his approach to young hitters, but it’s certainly worth noting he knows what it takes to produce such outcomes.
Ryan Ludwick is another internal option that Cardinals fans have begun voicing their backing of. Ludwick was a 2007 All Star as a member of the Cardinals and was given credit for his work with Victor Scott II in helping transform his stance to put him in a more athletic position and adding a leg kick to help his lower half fire and produce more effectively when impacting the baseball that would translate into more power. My opinion on Ludwick would be to keep him in his current role as a roving instructor allowing him to maintain a less intense schedule and continue to help young ascending players. We know from Katie Woo, Cardinals beat writer for The Athletic, the Cardinals are woefully understaffed in this regard and detracting from that group would only further the need to fill more positions on that level.
Rich Gedman, the Triple A hitting coach for the Worcester Red Sox, is another candidate I think would make a lot of sense. Gedman has previous playing experience playing 12 seasons in the majors and was a Cardinal in ’91-’92 and was a 2x All Star in the mid 80’s for the Red Sox. Another important detail about Gedman is that he worked under soon-to-be President of Baseball Ops Chaim Bloom in Boston. The Cardinals plan to go forward with a youth movement starting in 2025 and one imperative trait the new hitting coach must have is the ability to work with young hitters. Gedman has worked with established young Red Sox hitters like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Tristan Casas, as well as, top young hitters Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and 2024 MILB player of the year Kristian Campbell. All 3 of the latter hitters rank in the top 10 of prospects in all of MLB according to MLB.com.
Update: The Cardinals have added Brant Brown as their new Hitting coach. Not who I originally targeted but accomplishes the main goal of going outside the organization for a new voice. Apparently, the Cardinals are trying to ruin my first article by having everything done before this posted, Thanks Mo.
The Cardinals will shed significant Salary from their payroll
President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak has indicated that 2025 will be a year of evaluation of young talent as the team transitions away from expensive veterans and annual contention. With that being said the team has major financial commitments set to come off their books or that they can move off of easily in the offseason.
The Cardinals hold player options on 3 pending free agents in Kyle Gibson, 11 million, Lance Lynn, 12 million, and Keynan Middleton, 6 million. Those are all likely to be declined instead opting to pay 1 million dollar buyouts. Bringing the total savings for 2025 to 26 million.
Next the Cardinals allow all veteran players on expiring deals to leave via free agency including franchise stalwart Paul Goldschmidt, 26 million, Andrew Kittrdege, 2.2 million, and Matt Carpenter 770 thousand. Bringing the total in savings in that regard to 28.9 million.
Combined the savings of those 6 players the team will shed $54.9 million in total payroll. The team has mentioned it’s intended to use some of the savings to boost revamping the minor leagues in terms of infrastructure and coaching. They would also like to add more roving instructors like the aforementioned Ryan Ludwick. Basically, a re-distributing of resources rather than an overwhelming commitment to player salary.
Update: Per team announcement the Cardinals have formally declined all 3 player options on Lynn, Gibson, and Middleton opting instead to pay 1 million dollar buyouts each. This article can’t be posted soon enough!
At least 2 veteran salaries will be traded away this offseason
The RSN complications and virtual unknown surrounding what the team’s revenue structure will look like ultimately will determine just how far down this path the Cardinals will need to go to balance their new look budget. The Cardinals have been receiving $66 million a year from Diamond Sports group (Bally Sports) and their current contract with that entity wasn’t set to expire until 2032. However, since DSG filed for bankruptcy that’s no longer a guaranteed set of revenue the franchise can rely on to help sustain its payroll. Thus we move further into the realm of cost cutting and I predict that 2 of Steven Matz, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, or Nolan Arenado will find new homes in 2025.
Steven Matz would appear to be the easiest contract to move with 1 year and 11 million dollars remaining on his current deal. Matz would present an acquiring team a versatile left handed arm with experience starting and relieving, and based off of last seasons rate for back end starters (see Lynn 12 Million and Gibson 11 Million as reference) they should be able to find a suitor looking for some veteran depth to add to its pitching rotation. All in all Matz wouldn’t return much in value in terms of prospect equity, but he should fetch a couple prospects with some decent upside and moving off of his financial commitment should ultimately be the appeal of such a deal.
Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado each present an escalating level of challenge in moving on from. Willson Contreras would logically be the next most ideal player to move on from in an attempt to shed significant dollars from a volatile revenue projection standpoint. Consider his 140 wRC+ and 2.6 fWar in only 84 games played this season as major incentives for acquiring teams looking for RH production whether that be from the Catcher position or the DH spot. Contreras took steps forward as a receiver this season going from 13th percentile in pitch framing to 33rd in 2024 according to baseball savant. That being said his 18 million AAV is justified by the bat alone and any defensive value added would simply be icing on the cake. Contreras, Gray, and Arenado all carry “No-Trade Clauses” in their contracts and would have to voluntarily wave any such stipulation for the team to trade them, though its common place in today’s game to do so.
Bringing us to our next candidate, Sonny Gray. In his lone season wearing the Birds on the Bat, Gray, registered a 3.84 ERA in 28 starts across 166.1 IP. Gray also struck out batters to a stellar 30.3 K% and produced a 3.12 FIP and a 3.8 fWAR. Gray is due 25 Million in 2025 thanks to a backloaded contract he signed this previous offseason. Gray only accounted for $10 million in 2024, respectively. The Cardinals top right handed starter is a month shy of turning 35 and a $25 million upper rotation starter doesn’t make a ton of sense on a roster that doesn’t have designs on contending thus the team should pursue opportunities to move off of his salary and also do right by the player and give him the opportunity to contend for a title while he is still an effective pitcher. Last offseason Gray was said to desire to stay close to his Nashville home, so geographic location is likely a factor in any negotiation for Gray, and my early favorite landing spot, should Gray be moved, would be Atlanta. The Braves were the speculated runner up for Grays services and their potential loss of veteran starters Max Fried and Charlie Morton also the recovery of Spencer Strider (Tommy John) the Braves would likely desire another dependable starter to go along with Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez as they seek to contend in a loaded NL East.
Finally, we arrive at Nolan Arenado. Nolan had his statistically least effective season in 2024 producing a 102 wRC+ and, though, a respectable 3.1 fWAR most of that is defensive value accrued. The Cardinal third basemen saw his power fall off a cliff this season only producing 16 home runs in 635 plate appearances his ISO also has dropped each of the last 3 seasons .241 in ‘22, .193 in ‘23, and bottoming out at .123 in ‘24, that’s almost 100 points lower than his career normal production in that regard. Considering factors such as how difficult it was to get to St. Louis and orchestrate the trade in the first place, his own geographic desires to remain in certain markets, and the whopping 32 million owed to him in 2025 he’s likely to remain a Cardinal unless he pulls off an old trick and voices his displeasure for the organization in a public fashion and forces the teams hand, which I don’t anticipate him doing, considering his expressed desire to wear a red jacket one day. Still, moving out Arenado for every day reps for younger players, like Contreras, could appeal to the Cardinals brain trust but ultimately I expect that he would be the least likely to move this offseason.
The Cardinals will sell high on Helsley and Siani
2024 was unequivocally the year of Helsley. 49 saves, which tied a franchise record held by Trevor Rosenthal, a 29.7 K% and achieved 2.3 fWAR in 66.1 IP. If the Cardinals had a lead heading into the 9th inning it was over (besides facing the Cubs for whatever reason.) The theme of the article really follows the simple line of “does this player make sense on a team that’s not contending next season?” A Closer entering his final season of arbitration eligibility, due a significant raise, and whose trade stock is at an all-time high. It’s really now or never to cash in on the asset. Some would argue you could carry Helsley into the season and flip him at the deadline if the team is truly out of contention. I would push back against that line of thinking for 3 reasons: 1. again his value is at an all-time high, 2. you risk damaging his value by poor performance and we all know how volatile relievers are, and3. you risk injuring the asset which would also diminish the value of any potential return, if at all, depending on the severity of the injury. Therefore, moving on from the asset this offseason when you have all contenders and fringe contenders eager to add to their rosters/bullpens and you can create a bidding war that may allow you to extract surplus value that you would not otherwise generate and the risk of carrying Helsley in season is far too great for a risk adverse front office group.
Michael Siani is another player I would implore the Cardinals to seek value on as the 96th percentile centerfielder showed platinum glove level defense in CF. His offensive profile left a lot to be desired, however. Accruing a 64 wRC+ for the season and he did show some promise when, as the season went along, his batting average climbed month over month .132 in April, .254 in May, .277 in June, and he hit .310 in July! Unfortunately for Siani he strained his oblique that derailed the momentum he was starting to generate with the bat and we saw him come back in September but wasn’t able to generate the same kind of production only batting .125 leading me to believe he wasn’t fully healthy upon his return. Regardless, that type of defensive value could obtain a real asset in return and with the expected rise of Victor Scott II clearing the path for everyday at bats would provide the Cardinals with additional assets and the clear heir apparent in CF everyday going forward making it easier to justify moving on from Siani.
Cardinals extend Brendan Donovan to a 5-year contract
If there was one player who I think the Cardinals should approach this offseason about making a core piece of the puzzle going forward it should be Brendan Donovan. I propose the team extend Donovan an offer of 5 years and $62.5 million. Donovan, already a Gold Glove winner in 2022 and a finalist again in 2024, has the defensive acumen at multiple positions that he really fills any need or spot that might arise throughout the season, it has been documented by multiple sources that he’s a growing member of the leadership core in the clubhouse, and he has posted above league average output every season since debuting sporting wRC+ of 127 in ‘22, 118 in ‘23, and 115 in ‘24. Preparing to leap into the foray of arbitration I would settle with Donovan at a fairly standard first year earner rate of 2.5 million for 2025 and buyout the rest of his arbitration years in ‘26 and ‘27 and his first 2 years of free agency in ‘28 and ‘29 at 15 million AAV which is a more than fair market value for a player of Donovan’s production. Donnie would be 32 at the end of that deal and assuming he continues to perform at that consistent pace he’d have a really good opportunity for one more “bite at the apple” as they say in the business. The Cardinals would have a long-term leader in the clubhouse that they seem to value highly and Cardinals fans would have the chance to watch a profile of player they seem to really enjoy in a scrappy, gritty, put it all on the line, blue collar style of play.
If you have any offseason predictions leave them in the comments below and I would love to see what everyone is thinking. This will definitely be one of the more unique off-seasons of my 29 years of life as a Cardinals fan and I can’t wait to cover it all with you here. Gracias por leer! (Thanks for reading.)
