Let’s get the low down and dirty on the 2024 St Louis Cardinals
First off, hello and welcome to my first article as a weekly writer at Viva El Birdos! I joined back in 2008 as Cards Fan In Chitown (I lived in Chicago from 1997 to 2019, wearing Cardinals gear a lot there) but I’m a country boy at heart, growing up on a dirt road in rural western Illinois near Moline (the Cardinals used to have a A ball affiliate there across the river in Davenport called the River Bandits). So dr. howl was invented as my “not-living-in-Chicago-anymore” moniker.
I think I had other accounts here briefly and I’ll just stick with this handle, as it has not given me any trouble with doing things like verifying and other computer related issues. So I’ll go ahead and write with this name. I have written many a comment both good and bad, Fanposts hit or miss, and now after this year (and after a previous stint) I have a lot of game recaps to my name as well. I have also written about music and art, politics, food, etc. I will of course leave the politics and religion out of my writing here. Without further adieu:
It is time for us to sit back and contemplate what just happened with the Cardinals 2024 season performance. Better now than never because it was a perplexing chain of events that lead to a season that could be seen as a little bit lucky or quirky, and even possibly be labeled as an overperformance… given a filthy run differential that could have just as easily produced a 76-86 season (expected wins/losses on mlb.com). Or you could just accept that this was a very mediocre ballclub and leave it at that.
But it didn’t have to be this way. The Cardinals ended up with above average pitching. And while the rotation was a big worry to some, it ended up being… fine. Sonny Gray gave us a couple scares with being hurt early, and with at times ineffectiveness, but he ended up as a truly good pick up last offseason.
What was a highlight of this year in 2024? The bullpen was really good! Aside from Ryan Helsley’s (Cardinals) record breaking 49 saves on the season, his 0 ERA in September, and his nearly 18 k/9 in that duration, the feel good Rule 5 success story of Ryan Fernandez’s most excellent performance (and ‘stache), and Andrew Kittredge eating a lot of bullpen leftovers to the tune of a 2.80 ERA, the bullpen still had a lot more to offer.
The 2024 bullpen was really good at controlling walks and home runs, and at inducing ground balls. 3rd in MLB in GB%, tied for 6th in LOB%, 7th in MLB in HR/9, and tied for 5th in BB/9.
But let’s gloat some more: Helsley was absolutely electric in 2024, Fernandez was the second most valuable reliever out of the bullpen and he was a finder’s keepers freebie, and Kittredge was a key acquisition to bolster the bullpen before the season even began. John King and Kyle Leahy were surprisingly effective the whole year, Libertore showed signs of effectiveness at the MLB level (from the ‘pen), and JoJo Romero crashing back down to earth didn’t even go as badly as it could have at 3.36 ERA.
Helsley joins the ranks of Cardinals elite closers such as Trevor Rosenthal (who he just surpassed by one save), Jason Isringhausen and Lee Smith (who he is just two ahead of in the record books), Bruce Sutter, and Jason Motte.
Outside of the bullpen that helped deliver a very good record of 29-22 in one run games, and the good enough starting rotation that was lead by the 13th best pitcher in MLB Sonny Gray (7th best starter in the NL by fWAR), the Cardinals position players did not live up to expectations on offense… we all knew the offense would have to be good, and thought that it would and could be. It was not.
The Cardinals defense was straight up average in 2024, going by UZR, so that was not the glaring problem on the position side of the roster. The pitching performance was mediocre by ERA+ on baseball reference, but were closer to a top 10 in total pitching fWAR. So the overall pitching wasn’t a big problem, and the bullpen was a strength. What held back this team?
You could blame Marmol or Mozeliak, Girsch, the Dewitts, the coaches… but on the field, the offense just didn’t execute. Who is to blame for that? I wish I knew. One could simply blame the hitting coach but it is more than likely just not that simple. Or you could blame so called NL Least Valuable Player “winner” Paul Goldschmidt because he so often was in a spot to knock in runs but was about as un-clutch as one could possibly be. Just read that link to the Athletic article for the stats… Just quite simply one of the most baffling offensive performances that I have ever experienced as either a fan or of just hearing of bad situational hitting in general.
The Cardinals as a team were a tick below average on offense, ending up at 98 wRC+ as a squad. And Paul Goldschmidt, as much as we can insult his atrocious situational hitting capabilities in much of 2024, was not the worst of our problems. Dylan Carlson, Jose Fermin, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Luken Baker, Brandon Crawford, Michael Siani, Nolan Gorman, Pedro Pages, and Thomas Saggese were all below league average hitters. Granted a lot of those names are players still in development, but it still reflected on the ability of the offense to win some games.
Random fact: The 2024 Cardinals played better in night games, and were 81-72 on grass and only 2-7 while playing on Astroturf
That said, veteran hitter Paul Goldschmidt finished right at league average and 2024 season bright spot Masyn Winn was barely above a league average hitter, relying mostly on defense for his value as a player. Nolan Arenado was another defense first player who was barely above average on offense, hitting only one more home run than Masyn Winn and two more than Brendan Donovan.
On the bright side, Donovan was a pretty good hitter this year, albeit not quite what I wanted from him at 115 wRC+, it was still nothing to complain about. Alec Burleson was bad last year and was a good but not awesome hitter this year, showing signs of progress and growth at 106 wRC+, raising his career average to 97. And Lars Nootbaar was right around his career numbers and was just fine, even though he was injured it was nothing to complain about really.
But nothing to complain about isn’t very exciting; so who were our entertaining and productive hitters? Two players who had their playing time limited! Both catchers: Willson Contreras who got injured pretty badly TWICE, and Ivan Herrera who was not granted as much playing time as he should’ve gotten because he simply could not throw runners out. Contreras was by far the best hitter on the team and had more power than anyone else by ISO. Herrera ended up with a 127 wRC+ which is actually a very exciting player. Maybe he can be moved to another position but I think his bat still plays well, even if just as a really good backup catcher who can take some playing time at DH as well.
Their w/l record was better vs lefties, and only .500 when facing righties
Ok so now that we have reviewed the pitching, defense (which was ok but needs improving too), and the empty offense, let’s talk about what I thought about last offseason. I kept talking about how we needed two big upgrades to the rotation, but we only got one with Sonny Gray, plus two veteran innings eaters: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. With only one significant upgrade in the rotation, it seemed an awful lot like 2023 but instead of Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray was at the forefront of the rotation (and in hindsight, THANK GOODNESS). These acquisitions worked out better than I thought they would, and were ok… but not enough to move the expectations meter by a whole lot.
The Cardinals owners and management had a lot of faith in some of the position players blossoming, and in future hall of fame veterans Goldschmidt and Arenado. Ultimately they didn’t do enough though, especially offensively. The key offensive player Contreras being hurt for much of the season didn’t help at all. And Burleson was ok but not a difference maker, at least not yet in his career. I do admit there was a time this season where he practically carried the offense on his back, so there is still hope for him hitting.
What worked out
- Masyn Winn was very fun to watch (both on defense and in finding his way on offense!),
- Arenado’s and Siani’s defense were very very good
- Brendan Donovan’s versatility and continued above average hitting abilities
- Free agents Sonny Gray 3.70 xERA, Lance Lynn 3.84 ERA
- Ryan Fernandez Rule 5 draft
- Helsley’s record setting 2024 and the bullpen in general
- Andre Pallante’s emerging potential as an effective rotation option. He controlled the home run ball so very well it feels like its his main gift; his K/BB ratio got a little better and he showed progress with his control, while his results of a 3.78 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.71 FIP, and 3.85 xFIP over 121.1 innings were very confidence inspiring
- Michael McGreevy who we saw much less of, also brought moments of hope in his few starts and bullpen appearances: 23 IP at 1.96 ERA, 3.44 xERA, 2.56 FIP, and 2.72 xFIP is pretty awesome
I am ready to pencil Pallante into the rotation next year, and I would not be super surprised to see McGreevy in there too.
What failed
- We didn’t need both Lance Lynn AND Kyle Gibson (just one of them would’ve worked)… Lance Lynn didn’t eat as many innings as expected and Kyle Gibson finished with a rather disappointing line of 4.24 ERA, 4.90 xERA, 4.42 FIP, and 4.19 xFIP… good back end of the rotation material
- Tommy Edman was injured for far longer than they thought he would be and this seems to be a medical evaluation issue or wishful thinking on their part
- Bad timing on a lot of things including injuries to key players Contreras and Nootbaar. Any time the team seemed to gain traction they would derail somehow
- Whatever “hitting philosophy” or strategy was deployed was an utter disaster, and/or the hitting coach was one of the worst ever… just too many underperformances happening
What really hurt their chances
- Burleson’s defense
- Walker’s hitting (and defense)
- Goldschmidt failing in so many RISP opportunities
- Gorman striking out so many many times
- This idea that bringing in a bunch of old Cardinals veterans would equate to competitive play. Mentorship is cool and all but they have really drastically cut costs here. Were they attempting to learn coaching too? At least they had Siani’s defense but he was another empty spot in the lineup offensively.
I hope you have enjoyed my ranting and raving, ruminations, random statistics, and musing about the St Louis Cardinals in 2024. Perhaps I held out too much hope for this team but they were more entertaining in my mind than they actually were at the end of the day, err, season. I see some potential here and thought it was a fun season overall, even though the offense was extremely aggravating. After 2023, maybe my expectations were lowered so far that I just assumed that this year would be just OK. And that was good enough for me. While they only won 83 games, that’s a whole lot better than winning 71 games and finishing 20 games below .500. It was after all a winning season, and gave us a glimpse into the future if nothing else. Whether that glimpse was and is hopeful or not, is up to you.
That said I see where the negativity is coming from, a negative run differential puts you into the minority of 12 teams that did not produce more runs than they gave up. The Cardinals in 2024 were different than the Cardinals in 2023, since more things broke their way than not. By run differential the Cardinals were in second to last place in the NL Central.
That said each game is in its own universe and run differential is more of a guesstimate, even if it is pretty accurate in determining true talent. Things like good bullpens and getting blown out on certain days make figuring this stuff out more difficult, so I’m taking the expected wins and losses with a grain of salt, and accepting that this was not a bad team. But it was awfully middling, maybe at best.
I predicted that the Cubs and Cardinals would be equals in 2024, but I thought they would both be a tad bit better than the Brewers. While projections by consensus got the Cubs and Cardinals similar record right, they sure were wrong about how good the Brewers could be.
The future is very murky, uncertain, and questionable. The Cardinals need to and are retooling, reassessing, doing everything but tanking and rebuilding. I don’t think they’ll trade away players, but they’re not going to be handing out contracts at this time. Paul Goldschmidt will have to depart, when many of us expected him to retire as a Cardinal. Times are tough and tough are the times. What do you think the Cardinals will be like in 2025? I really have no idea.
As a new writer and vintage commenter here on VEB, we all know that we don’t always stick to baseball, sabermetrics, or anything really. We like to talk about food, music, culture, and just about anything. What would you like me to write about, Viva El Birdos? I promise to stick to the community guidelines and be a voice for all here. But my main focus in life is not baseball, it is music. And what type of music do I think of when I think of the historic sport of baseball? Baseball is just about the most American thing next to jazz music.
I just ran across this site that I thought might be fun to visit, as an intro to talking about music: https://johnedwardhasse.com/speaker/jazz-and-baseball
For me jazz and baseball, economics, American history, etc go hand in hand. What resonated with me most on that one page of website is when the author speaks of duality and yet similarities between baseball and jazz.
Both jazz musicians and baseball players strive for a perfect balance between disciplined practice and spontaneity, between the prescribed and the improvised.
As a self taught musician who has learned more through playing with other musicians than through study, this quote is familiar. Doing reps and building a framework of fundamentals, essential moves, and economy of action vs inaction while practicing alone, I feel that music and baseball do have a lot of similarities. It may be a stretch, but muscle memory and strength building gained through repetitive actions mixed with a free mind in the zone mentality provide the ultimate ownership of the moment. I would call this something akin to a Zen moment, but there are many ways to describe this.
Whether at the plate or on the stage or in a practice space, performing arts whether more athletic or creatively oriented, there is always the idea of being in the moment and losing oneself in it, to be the best at what you’re doing. Maybe this is what the Cardinals hitters needed to be like this year. Maybe there was too much of a plan. Or not enough?
What jazz musician or in-the-moment, skillful musical artist are you thinking of now? Someone who is completely of the moment but highly skillful and trained, experiential? I would have to recommend a bit of the obvious: Giant Steps by John Coltrane. This album was at the forefront of my jazz journey, and helped cement my fandom of the genre, which started through listening to rock fusion and multi-genre bands as a teenager, and blossomed after moving from the country to Chicago. Giant Steps never gets old and is exemplary of being alive in America, at least in my opinion.
One thing I will be doing along with my baseball writing is inducting an album into my Album Hall of Fame. The only requirement will be that it needs to be a perfect album from start to finish, all killer no filler, a total classic no matter what time period its from, it’s just spot on. Timeless. And that applies to Giant Steps.
Let’s hope the Cardinals are ready to make giant steps in the right direction next year! Because this year was more baby steps than a big leap.
