I ignored the possibility of trades or free agent signings for this exercise.
Before we enter the offseason, it might be helpful to take stock of the Cardinals’ roster decisions. Much like Jason going over the payroll in anticipation of the offseason, I will attempt to figure out what the 40 man roster may look like without any trades or free agent signings and by simply relying on players in-house. The conclusions I draw will likely leave the 40 man at less than 40 players.
First an important note: you may be wondering why you should care about the 40 man, but it drives MLB roster decisions. If you are in the minors and aren’t on the 40 man and you don’t have to be added, teams will wait until they have a clear MLB role for you. And in theory, they’ll wait until you’re absolutely ready, but as we saw with Jordan Walker, that’s not always true.
For instance, let’s look at two 2B who spent most of the year in Memphis. Now I’ll state outright that this is a bad example of what I’m talking about and I’ll explain why. But both Cesar Prieto and Thomas Saggese had essentially the same offensive performance in AAA. Saggese was Rule 5 eligible at the end of the year, Prieto is not. There is no real “risk” in promoting Saggese. He would be added in November anyway. You don’t even burn one of his options if you keep him up the rest of the year.
The risk for Prieto is that you add him and then find he wouldn’t make the cut or worse you cut someone you don’t want to cut because you added Prieto. Now it’s a bad example because Saggese is a better fielder, better prospect, and his offensive performance was trending up and Prieto has been a pretty steady decline after a hot start. But even if they were equal options – hell even if Saggese was a slightly worse option – he’s still getting promoted over Prieto for 40 man reasons, especially if the season is over.
So the obvious place to start is who is a lock – ignoring potential trades – for the 2025 roster? There are six – just six – players with a guaranteed 2025 contract: Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Steven Matz, and Willson Contreras. Even if the Cardinals ultimately decide to move on from Mikolas in the form of a release, it wouldn’t happen over the offseason.
There are also 6 players eligible for arbitration: Ryan Helsley, Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero, Andre Pallante, Lars Nootbaar and John King. King’s the only one who has a chance of getting nontendered, but even then, it feels like he had too good of a season for that to happen.
We’re only at 12 players, but we certainly have more locks to go. Here are pre-arb MLB players who are indisputably locks to stay on the 40 man if the Cardinals do not make a trade: Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Ivan Herrera, Michael Siani, Victor Scott, Thomas Saggese, Michael McGreevy, Ryan Fernandez, Matthew Liberatore, and we’re going to count Nolan Gorman here too. Now we’re at 24.
That leaves the minor league locks, players who are in some way prospects who teams won’t simply give away for nothing: Sem Robberse, Gordan Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, and…. I think there is a case, however small, anyone else could get DFA’d. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m not even saying they should, but I can squint and see it. We have a lot of spots to fill, we’re just at 27.
First the controversial omissions from the locks that are most likely not getting DFA’d: Luken Baker and Zack Thompson. My logic for why they are possibly on the table is I think sound: if the Cardinals don’t believe in Baker – and re-signing Goldschmidt if it happens is a pretty clear sign in my mind – no reason to keep him. He’s never getting a chance if not next year. It’s the same logic for why Juan Yepez was DFA’d, albeit both were coming off vastly different seasons. Thompson is simply that he is out of options and they’ve soured on him. I don’t believe either of these happen, but they are not “locks” for me.
Then the debatable ones that I see a more realistic chance of getting DFA’d are Kyle Leahy, Chris Roycroft, Drew Rom, Ryan Loutos, Riley O’Brien, and Jose Fermin. If I’m playing Out of the Park Baseball (OOTP), I keep them all until other roster moves force my hand, so that’s how we’ll operate. We’re at 35.
Who is missing from this list, seeing as the Cardinals have 41 players on the 40 man or 60 day IL? Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Andrew Kittredge, and Keynan Middleton. If we’re not making any trades and this premise requires that trades be ignored, the options of Lynn, Gibson, and Middleton are rejected.
Now, that was basically all a long intro for the premise of the post, which is looking at players not currently on the 40 man who need to be added, or could be added. I’m not going to go through the whole list, because it includes players like Chance Sisco, signed in August from independent ball who has 3 years of MLB service on his resume. So let’s stick with realistic possibilities.
Ian Bedell, RHP
Stats (AA): 12 G (10 GS), 64.2 IP, 29.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 36 GB%, 4.73 ERA/4.59 FIP/3.46 xFIP
AAA: 9 GS, 43 IP, 16.4 K%, 12.7 BB%, 37.7 GB%, 5.02 ERA/7.03 FIP/6.69 xFIP
With Bedell, it really comes down to two things: 1) Does another team think he is a future starter? and 2) Does another team think he could be a reasonably effective reliever in the MLB right now? It only takes one team. I actually think there’s a pretty good chance he wouldn’t be selected, but I personally look at his 29.5 K% in AA and just by that alone, could see him succeeding in a reliever role in 2025 or at least being the 7th or 8th best option on a bad team and that’s enough to put him on there.
Conclusion: Put on 40
Jacob Bosiokovic, RHP
Stats (AAA): 47 G, 55 IP, 26 K%, 14 BB%, 43.9 GB%, 5.56 ERA/5.11 FIP/4.73 xFIP
I want this guy to pitch in the majors so badly, but yeah I don’t think I can justify this one. Hopefully, the Cardinals bring him back next year, and hopefully if he’s ever promoted, he can actually pitch next time. Not optimistic about him coming back though.
Conclusion: Keep off 40, likely opts for FA
Alex Cornwell, LHP
Stats (AA): 19 G (15 GS), 83.2 IP, 23.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 57.5 GB%, 4.95 ERA/3.82 FIP/3.60 xFIP
AAA: 6 G, 15.1 IP, 18.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 61.7 GB%, 4.70 ERA/4.68 FIP/4.15 xFIP
I think Cornwell is a sneaky potential relief option in the MLB club, but with that said, he’s a pretty easy no on adding him to the 40 man roster. I don’t think there’s really any risk of him being selected. He’s basically a poor man’s John King. Really, it’s the lack of strikeouts that make me think he’ll stay in the organization with no problem.
Conclusion: Keep off 40
Andre Granillo, RHP
Stats (AA): 14 G, 18.1 IP, 31.9 K%, 13.9 BB%, 36.8 GB%, 1.47 ERA/3.25 FIP/3.73 xFIP
AAA: 34 G, 46.2 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.2 BB%, 31.3 GB%, 4.82 ERA/4.85 FIP/5.15 xFIP
Boy he is really straddling that line between keep and keep off for me. The walks and lack of groundballs would really not work in the majors. And I would expect his K rate to drop even further. So I’m not really seeing an MLB-ready bullpen arm in Granillo. On the other hand, he is – to the extent that a relief prospect can be one – something of a prospect. Fangraphs has him in their top 20 the past two years. That means you probably have to keep him.
Conclusion: Put on 40
Tink Hence, RHP
Stats (AA): 20 GS, 79.2 IP, 34.1 K%, 8.1 BB%, 41.7 GB%, 2.71 ERA/2.51 FIP/2.62 xFIP
Conclusion: Put on 40
Matt Koperniak, OF
Stats (AAA): 513 PAs, .309/.370/.512, 8.4 BB%, 18.7 K%, .203 ISO, .351 BABIP, 128 wRC+
ZiPS projected an 89 wRC+ prior to the 2024 season. You would expect that to be higher for next season right? I’m not so sure it’s a going to be much different. They projected a 6.9 BB% and 18.7 K%, but he actually walked 10.4% of the time last year and struck out 14.5% of the time. So those numbers aren’t getting better and maybe worse.
His main differences are more power (.156 ISO) and BABIP (.293 last year), and I would not be surprised if 26-year-olds repeating AAA gaining power and BABIP is not taken as a real improvement by ZiPS. Could be wrong. Anyway, even if you believe in Koperniak, I don’t think he’s getting selected. The closest in the last two years who would be like Koperniak is Ryan Noda, who both had a COVID missing season and being in the Dodgers farm. Most teams select pitchers, not position players and if a position player is selected, it’s usually an actual prospect.
Packy Naughton, LHP
Stats (AAA): 10.2 IP, 24.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.7 GB%, 2.53 ERA/2.16 FIP/3.34 xFIP
Okay so he won’t actually be Rule 5 eligible. He’ll certainly hit free agency if the Cards don’t keep him. In order to keep Naughton, the Cards would basically have to add him to the 40 man. I don’t see him re-signing a minor league deal if they don’t. I personally would keep him. I’m not optimistic the Cardinals will. He still has an option and he looks like a solid reliever, injury issues the last two years being his main drawback.
Conclusion: Put on 40
Jeremy Rivas, SS
Stats (AA): 459 PAs, .263/.349/.311, 10 BB%, 18.5 K%, .048 ISO, .325 BABIP, 94 wRC+
Ain’t no chance in hell with that power. I know defense-first SS with a 94 wRC+ in AA at age 22 should in theory be at risk of being selected, but he would be eaten alive in the majors. He’s also never been considered a prospect. Pretty easy.
Conclusion: Keep off 40
Tekoah Roby, RHP
Stats (AA): 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 21.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 37.4 GB%, 6.75 ERA/6.59 FIP/4.19 xFIP
Disappointing season aside – ignore the ERA and FIP given the sample and league in my opinion – easy decision
Conclusion: Put on 40
Darlin Saladin, RHP
Stats (Low A): 11 GS, 26.8 K%. 7.4 BB%, 44.7 GB%, 1.95 ERA/2.61 FIP/3.29 xFIP
High A: 12 GS, 27.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 42.8 GB%, 3.43 ERA/2.73 FIP/3.29 xFIP
Not going to lie, when I started this, he wasn’t even on my radar, but then I noticed he was Rule 5 eligible and well, his stats are very good. Will some team stash the 22-year-old in the bullpen for a year for his potential? He hasn’t really gotten prospect love yet, so the Cardinals are probably safe, but Luis Perdomo was selected with worse stats than this.
Conclusion: Keep off 40…. I think. I really don’t want to lose this guy.
Matt Svanson, RHP
Stats (AA): 53 G, 63.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 8.8 BB%, 52.7 GB%, 2.69 ERA/3.93 FIP/4.08 xFIP
Svanson sure turned his season after a slow start – he’s had a 2.25 ERA and 2.47 FIP since the beginning of August. I wonder if the AFL is an audition to be added. I feel like a 25-year-old with a 20% K rate in AA doesn’t stand a huge risk of being selected though.
Conclusion: Keep off 40
Keep in mind this exercise assumes no moves are made before the deadline to make the 40 man. I added five players and that makes it a full 40 man roster. As soon as a signing is made, someone would need to get DFA’d. I actually went through the Rule 5 guys without regard for how many I would keep and just so happened to land at 5. If I had landed at more, I would have figured out who to DFA among the “debatable” group.
Anyway, who should be kept and who should be given their walking papers?
